Deterrence, Division, and Decay: How Iran Politically Contains Iranian Kurdish Armed Groups
Iran’s strategy toward Iranian Kurdish armed groups is not built around concessions. It is built around political deterrence, selective differentiation,…
The Logic Behind Iraq’s Militia Strike Campaign
Since 28 February 2026, US and Israeli airstrikes have hit positions belonging to at least fifteen PMF-affiliated militias across seven…
Written by
Arivan
Airstrikes Target Iraq’s Disputed Territories and Sunni Heartland, Not the Shia-Dominated South
From Jurf al-Sakhar and Baghdad to al-Qaim, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Tuz Khurmatu, the strike campaign has widened sharply since late February. But even as it has expanded, it still concentrates…
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Written by
Arivan
Why Iran’s Sunni Kurdish Islamists Are Not Joining the Anti-Regime War
One of the misleading assumptions on the Iran war is that the Sunni Kurdish belt should naturally drift toward any project aimed at weakening the Islamic Republic. On paper, that…
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Written by
Arivan
The Pipeline Card: Why the KRG’s Strongest Lever May Be Its Most Dangerous
Iraq’s oil minister said today that Kirkuk crude would be re-exported within a week through the old federal Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline “without passing through the Kurdistan Region,” after the KRG refused…
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Written by
Arivan
Iran’s Layered Counter-Strategy Aims to Close the Kurdish Corridor Before It Opens
Since the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran began on February 28, 2026, much of the outside commentary has fixated on whether Iranian Kurdish factions could open a western ground front.…
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Written by
Arivan
How the Strikes on Iraq’s Militias Followed the Country’s Divide
The pattern that emerged in the strikes on pro-Iran Iraqi militias between February 28 and March 11 was striking not only for the number of attacks but for where they…
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Written by
Arivan
Kurdish Gains in Syria Are Real. A Kurdish Region Is Not.
Several important developments in recent weeks have made the direction of the SDF-Damascus integration agreement much clearer, even if implementation remains gradual and incomplete. The broad contours of the deal…
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Written by
Arivan
Caught Between Trump and Tehran, the PUK Has Nowhere to Hide
The PUK has emerged as a central player in the U.S.-Israel push to arm Iranian Kurdish groups and allow them to use the Kurdistan Region as a launching pad for…
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