Sadiqoun’s surge: how Qais al-Khazali’s movement became Iraq’s largest Shia party in parliament

In last week’s Iraqi parliamentary elections, the Sadiqoun Movement – the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq – emerged as the largest Shia party in the Iraqi parliament in terms of seats. As a standalone list, Sadiqoun outperformed individual parties such as al-Sudani’s Furatayn Current and Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa/State of Law camp. While it ranks third overall among Shia forces once coalitions are included, the two larger formations ahead of it are broad electoral umbrellas made up of competing factions that are far more exposed to defections and internal bargaining.

Among Shia groups, the results by coalition and party are as follows:

The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, formally won 46 seats, making it the largest Shia coalition both in terms of seats and in the number of constituent parties. It is composed of al-Sudani’s al-Furatayn Current, which is estimated to have won only 7 seats; the Al-Wataniya (National) Coalition of Iyad Allawi, which secured 1 seat; the Al-Aqd al-Watani (National Contract) Alliance headed by PMF chief Falih al-Fayyadh, which won roughly 9–10 seats within the coalition; the Al-Awfiya Movement, the political wing of the Ansar Allah al-Awfiya militia led by Haider al-Gharawi, which took 7 seats; Ibdaʿ Karbala, led by Nassif al-Khattabi, which is estimated to have won 2-3 seats; and Bilad Sumer, the political wing of the Kataib Jund al-Imam militia led by Ahmed al-Asadi, which won 8 seats. The Irada Movement of Hanan al-Fatlawi added 1 seat, as did a number of independents, though their final affiliations are not yet fully clear. One additional seat was won by Ayat Adham, a candidate backed by the PUK, who has already announced that she will sit with the PUK bloc.

The State of Law Coalition, led by Nouri al-Maliki, won 30 seats. It brings together the Islamic Dawa Party, led by Maliki himself; the Al-Basha’ir Movement of Yasser al-Maliki; the Muntasiroun (Victors) Bloc, the political wing of Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada led by Abu Alaa al-Wala’i, which secured 4 seats; the Al-Fadila (Virtue) Party, which has won 12 seats; and the Islamic Turkmen Union, which represents the Hashd Turkmen Brigades and has won a seat in Salahaddin province.

The Sadiqoun Movement (Asaib) won 27 seats. Running as a standalone electoral list representing the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, it registered a particularly strong showing in the central and southern provinces, consolidating Qais al-Khazali’s position as the leader of the largest single Shia party in the new parliament.

The Badr Organization, led by Hadi al-Amiri, won 18 seats.

The National State Forces Alliance, led by Ammar al-Hakim, secured 18 seats. It brings together several forces, including the Al-Hikma (Wisdom) Current led by al-Hakim; the Arak Party, which won 3 seats within the alliance; Al-Ittijah al-Watani (National Trend); Al-Jihad wal-Binaaʿ (Jihad and Construction), which secured 1 seat; Al-Mashriq al-Arabi (Arab Orient); the Tumooh (Ambition) Movement; and the Islamic Turkmen Union.

The Asas al-‘Iraqi (Iraqi Foundation) Coalition, led by Mohsen al-Mandalawi, won 8 seats.

The Ishraqat Kanun Alliance, a Shia-led coalition with a strong civil and reformist profile, also won 8 seats.

The Tasmeem (Design) Alliance secured 6 seats. It includes the Istimrar (Continuity) Party, led by Basra governor Asaad al-Eidani, and the Justice and Unity Gathering Party of Amer al-Fayez. Notably, one of its winning candidates is affiliated with the Sunni Taqaddum Party of Mohammed al-Halbousi, underscoring Tasmeem’s cross-sectarian character.

The Huquq (Rights) Movement, the political wing of Kataib Hezbollah, won 6 seats.

The Abshir Ya Iraq (Rejoice, Iraq) Alliance, led by Humam Hammoudi, won 4 seats. Its components include the Islamic Supreme Council, Iqtadar Watan (Nation’s Capability) led by Abdul-Hussein Abtan, New Iraq Gathering, the National Foundations Gathering led by Mustafa Sanad, Al-Kalima (The Word) Current, and the Al-Amanah (Trust) Party.

The Wasit al-Ajmal (The Most Beautiful Wasit) Alliance, which is close to the Imam Ali Brigades and led by Mohammed Jamil al-Mayahi, won 4 seats.

The Khadamat (Services) Alliance, associated with the Imam Ali Brigades militia and led by Shibl al-Zaydi, won 5 seats.

Taken together, these results leave Sadiqoun as the strongest single Shia party in the new parliament, even as the broader Shia landscape remains fragmented across a dense web of coalitions, militia-linked lists and personalist currents.