Preliminary results show Shia parties collectively securing approximately 185 of 329 parliamentary seats, broadly consistent with their previous representation. Kurdish parties won around 60 seats, while Sunni parties captured 70-72 seats, maintaining the overall inter-sectarian equilibrium.

Context: Shia factions had feared dramatically reduced turnout in Shia-majority areas—particularly Baghdad’s 69-seat constituency—following firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s boycott call to his followers. However, the official 56% turnout exceeded expectations, undercutting al-Sadr’s aim of delegitimising the vote through a mass boycott.

Analysis: Within the Shia bloc, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list dominated with over 50 seats, potentially reaching 70. His main rival, former PM Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition, placed second, while Qais al-Khazali’s Sadiqqun outperformed Hadi al-Amiri’s Badr Organization for third place. A notable newcomer is the Asas coalition led by Muhsin Mandalawi, a pro-Iran Fayli Kurdish businessman who signals new dynamics within Shia politics.

Among Sunni parties, Muhammad al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum decisively outpaced both Khamis Khanjar’s Siyada and Muthanna al-Samarii’s Azm. In Baghdad—a critical Sunni battleground—Taqaddum is projected to win 9-10 seats compared to Azm’s four and Siyada’s mere three. This represents a setback for Khanjar, who concentrated resources on Baghdad to challenge Taqaddum’s dominance.

The Sunni results carry implications for Kurdistan Region dynamics. Taqaddum, whose leader al-Halbousi has increasingly strained relations with KDP president Masoud Barzani, campaigned against the KDP while forging closer ties with the PUK—including a governing alliance in Kirkuk. Meanwhile, Khanjar maintains close ties to Barzani. The results favor the PUK, which narrowed the gap with the KDP: projections show the KDP winning 27-29 seats versus the PUK’s 18-21, compared to 31 and 17 respectively in the 2021 elections.

Ultimately, seat totals alone won’t determine Iraq’s next government. Post-election coalition-building and political maneuvering will prove equally decisive in the country’s fragmented, cross-sectarian political landscape.