Instead of a long-form essay, we outline key points that may shape what Trump’s presidency could mean for the Kurdistan Region:

Key Determinants: The implications of Trump’s return to office for the Kurdistan Region will primarily hinge on: 

1. His management of Iran-Israel tensions 

2. His approach to Turkey

That is because rather than examining Trump’s policy through a Kurdistan-specific lens, it must be understood within his broader Middle East strategy since the KRG, as a sub-state actor, remains heavily influenced by both regional power dynamics and U.S. support.

The Iranian Dimension: Several factors complicate predictions regarding Trump’s Iran policy:

– Although an escalation against Iran and its regional ambitions seems likely, Trump’s unconventional policymaking approach could still defy expectations regarding his confrontational stance toward Iran.

– Israeli influence on his Middle East strategy, particularly given the ongoing conflict, may drive specific policy outcomes.

– Trump’s personal grievances with Iran, stemming from alleged assassination attempts and claims of electoral interference in favor of Harris, may influence his approach.

– The growing influence of anti-interventionist voices within Trump’s circle, who oppose “forever wars in the Middle East,” may moderate regional policy.

– Trump will likely maintain maximum pressure tactics short of war, adhering to his “peace through strength” doctrine in global affairs.

– Iran’s countermoves and its agency in shaping Trump’s approach shouldn’t be underestimated; Trump respects strength, so if Iran’s regime manages to push back, it wouldn’t be surprising if he pursued a grand bargain with Iran, strengthening their hand in countries like Iraq in the process.

– The trajectory of this outcome may hinge on Iran-Israel escalation management and potential Iranian retaliation against Israel, as reported by media outlets like The New York Times—a scenario that could trigger broader regional escalation.

The Kurdistan Region will likely be viewed through the broader lens of Iraqi politics, serving as:

– A potential counterweight to Iranian influence 

– A strategic location for continued U.S. military presence, with US’s Erbil bases gaining importance.

Local Kurdish Dynamics:

– The PUK and KDP are expected to face significant pressure from the surrounding geopolitical friction. 

– The KDP, often seen as closer to the U.S. and Israel, recently mended ties with Iran following a missile attack on Erbil. This détente has enabled the KDP to maintain its position within Kurdistan, albeit with somewhat reduced influence. 

– If the KDP reverts to its pre-May stance before its agreement with Iran, it may risk facing unprecedented backlash from Tehran. 

– This balancing act suggests that neither the KDP nor the PUK is inclined to become an open center for anti-Iranian activities.

The Turkish Factor: Trump’s apparent affinity for President Erdogan, combined with pro-Turkish lobbying within his circles—where some view the PKK primarily through an ideological lens as a Marxist group rather than considering the region’s ethnic politics—could lead to: 

– Expanded Turkish influence in Syria 

– Increased pressure on PKK-aligned groups 

– Direct implications for the Kurdistan Region’s western frontier, represented by Rojava 

– Potentially greater Turkish influence within the Kurdistan Region itself. As part of Trump’s strategy to counterbalance Iran, he may welcome and even encourage further Turkish influence in Erbil and in Sunni areas to mitigate Iran’s influence and delegate some concerns over growing Iranian influence.

Conclusion: Strategic Outlook 

The most significant determining factor is how Trump will shape the Israel-Iran conflict, which will directly impact the future of the Kurdistan Region and the internal balance of power between the KDP and the PUK. No matter how much the region tries to balance and avoid taking sides, the ripple effects of any escalation are inevitable and far-reaching.