US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to press for the resumption of the KRG’s suspended oil exports. While Washington has not released an official readout, a KRG statement noted that “both sides agreed on the need to restart exports via the Ceyhan port in Turkey”.

The Trump administration has prioritized the revival of KRG oil exports since taking office in January, viewing it as a key component of its broader strategy to isolate Iran economically. By attempting to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, the US sees KRG oil as a potential alternative source to help offset market disruptions.

However, a complicating factor is the illicit flow of a portion of KRG oil into Iran, where it is transacted through Iranian territory, indirectly benefiting Tehran. Shutting down this route could place significant financial strain on the KRG due to existing contractual obligations with international oil companies (IOCs). These IOCs are now using this leverage in negotiations, seeking more favorable terms amid growing US pressure on Baghdad to authorize the resumption of pipeline exports through Turkey.

Given the US campaign to counter Iran’s regional influence, the KRG has become a critical element in Washington’s strategic calculus. The US is wary of allowing the oil impasse to contribute to regional instability, particularly as it continues efforts to contain Iran and combat remnants of ISIS.

This phone call follows earlier US efforts to revive exports that hit an impasse. Talks between the Iraqi Oil Ministry, international oil companies, and the KRG reached a semi-deadlock despite high-level US engagement. Reuters reported that US diplomats were directly involved in negotiations that took place in February, during which the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor also spoke by phone with the Iraqi Prime Minister to advocate for export resumption. More recently, the US National Security Advisor called Masrour Barzani on March 21, reiterating the same message.

Washington appears to be simultaneously seeking a compromise and pressuring the KRG to moderate its demands to expedite a deal. With mounting US pressure on Iran and time-sensitive geopolitical stakes, the window for reaching an agreement is narrowing.

As previously reported, the current economic and geopolitical dynamics favor both the KRG and international oil firms, which are looking to capitalize on Washington’s attention to secure long-term, advantageous arrangements. Iraq, meanwhile, appears to be stalling, facing pressure on multiple fronts—from the threat of a US-Iran conflict and potential sanctions, to growing instability along its western border following the fall of the Assad regime. While Baghdad has repeatedly claimed that a breakthrough on KRG oil exports is imminent, no progress has yet materialized.