Despite the SDF–Damascus ceasefire, the situation in Hasakah remains fluid.
The Syrian Army has entered Tell Brak, a key Jabour tribe stronghold on the vital Qamishli–Hasakah highway. The SDF had already vacated the area, but its capture now means any SDF movement between Hasakah and Qamishli must route through Tell Tamer, which remains under SDF control for now.
Damascus announced a four-day ceasefire yesterday—leaving three days for the SDF to respond. In practical terms, the choice looks stark: accept terms that amount to dissolving the SDF as an independent force in exchange for symbolic posts with little real authority (such as an “assistant” defence minister role and the Hasakah governorship), alongside assurances that the Syrian Army will not enter “Kurdish villages.” Yet the same framework also makes clear that both Hasakah and Qamishli are ultimately to be folded back under central government control.
Meanwhile, U.S.-led coalition forces are reportedly moving high-value ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq. That suggests the al-Sina’a Prison—located in the Arab-majority Ghuwayran district in southern Hasakah city—is being emptied. Reports that the SDF is preparing defensive positions raise the possibility that clashes could resume.
Damascus’s likely military objective is to secure Hasakah city, Tell Tamer (a Christian-majority area), and Qamishli—at least as far as the southern belt where Arab tribes dominate. Strategically, that zone also includes Qamishli airport, which now hosts Russian troops.
If those positions fall, Kurdish-held areas in Hasakah would be split into two separate pockets.
For now, however, the SDF still controls the Rmelan oilfields and the Sweidiyeh gas plant—critical infrastructure for gas processing and electricity generation across Hasakah province.
Finally, the status of the Semalka crossing with the Kurdistan Region remains pivotal. It is the SDF’s primary lifeline—and would be essential to its survival if it chooses to resist and the agreement collapses.