Data spanning five Iraqi parliamentary elections from 2005 to 2021 shows significant shifts in Kurdish political participation and representation in the national legislature. Voter turnout among Kurdish constituents has decreased substantially, falling from 95% in the first post-Saddam election to 35.7% in the most recent cycle, while Kurdish parliamentary representation has dropped from 27% to 19% of total seats.

Voter Participation Trends

In the first parliamentary term (2005), 2.18 million Kurdish voters participated out of 2.29 million registered, yielding a 95% turnout rate with only 114,736 non-voters. This represented the highest engagement level across all five election cycles.

Subsequent elections showed declining participation. The second term (2010) saw turnout fall to 74.8%, with 1.94 million voters and 651,520 non-voters. The third term (2014) recorded a modest recovery to 78.3% turnout, with 2.13 million voters participating.

The most pronounced decline occurred between the third and fourth terms. In 2018, turnout dropped to 47.9%, with only 1.8 million voters and nearly 2 million non-voters. By the fifth term (2021), participation reached its lowest point at 35.7%, with just 1.23 million voters and 2.22 million non-voters—a 64.3% non-voting rate.

Registered Voter Base

The registered voter population grew from 2.29 million in 2005 to a peak of 3.76 million in 2018, representing a 64% increase. However, this figure decreased slightly to 3.45 million by 2021. Notably, while the registered voter base expanded by approximately 1.2 million between 2005 and 2021, actual voter turnout declined by nearly 950,000 over the same period.

Parliamentary Representation

Kurdish representation in Iraq’s national parliament has fluctuated across the five terms. The first term allocated 75 Kurdish seats out of 275 total parliamentary positions, constituting 27% of the legislature—the highest proportion recorded.

The second term (2010) saw a reduction to 57 Kurdish seats out of 325 total, dropping representation to 18%. The third term (2014) increased to 64 seats out of 328, bringing the percentage to 20%. The fourth term (2018) recorded the lowest Kurdish representation at 57 seats out of 329, or 17%. The most recent term (2021) shows 63 Kurdish seats out of 329, representing 19% of parliament.

Key Observations

The data reveals an inverse relationship between the growth of the registered voter base and actual voter participation. While the number of eligible voters increased by 50% between 2005 and 2021, the number of actual voters decreased by 43% over the same timeframe.

The non-voting rate increased from 5% to 64.3% across the five electoral cycles, indicating a shift in political engagement among Kurdish constituents. Parliamentary representation declined from 27% to 19%, though Kurdish seat numbers have shown some variation, ranging between 57 and 75 seats depending on the term.

The total size of Iraq’s parliament expanded from 275 seats in 2005 to 329 seats by 2018, representing a 20% increase in legislative capacity over the period examined.

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