Attacks by Iranian Kurdish groups inside Iran have declined after a sudden increase from late May through July. While several attacks were recorded in August and September, they have generally been considerably less lethal, with the pattern shifting away from larger armed clashes towards smaller, more targeted attacks.

More importantly, of around 27 recorded incidents, pro-PKK/PJAK-linked Iranian Kurdish groups account for at least 63%, compared with just 11% attributed to other Kurdish groups, while around 26% remain disputed or unresolved. Among incidents where the perpetrator can be identified, pro-PKK/PJAK-linked groups account for around 85%.

This makes their dominance of the armed campaign particularly clear. However, the trajectory since July points towards both declining intensity and changing tactics: fewer multi-fatality confrontations, more targeted killings, and, particularly in September, a growing proportion of incidents in which the perpetrators are difficult to identify. The apparent decline may therefore reflect both a reduction in organised armed activity and a shift towards smaller, more clandestine operations that are less frequently claimed.