The top leaders of the Kurdistan Region, including KDP president Masoud Barzani, have not been seen or held any public meetings since June 12, just before Israel launched its attacks on Iran. Similarly, both Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani have been absent from the public eye since that date.

Context: The Kurdistan Region is currently gripped by a severe financial crisis, with KRG public employees going without salaries for over 50 days. The escalating Israel-Iran conflict has sparked panic among residents, with many rushing to stockpile food amid fears the war could expand into their territory.

Analysis: While the Iraqi Prime Minister and other senior Baghdad officials remain visibly active in the capital, Kurdistan Region leaders have completely disappeared from public sight despite a growing regional war that directly affects their area. Local media outlets have reported, without naming figures, that several senior Kurdistan Region officials have either left the region entirely or gone into hiding.

This disappearance comes as residents face mounting hardships from the ongoing salary crisis and food security concerns. Iran has previously struck Erbil directly with ballistic missiles, citing the presence of Israeli agents. Notably, the KRG education ministry postponed 12th grade final exams due to “regional security concerns” – a measure not taken elsewhere in Iraq or neighboring countries. This has fueled speculation that officials postponed exams because their own families have fled the region.

Since Israel launched its attacks, aircraft and missiles have been frequently spotted in regional skies. The Kurdistan Region remains one of the Middle East’s most vulnerable areas for potential conflict expansion. Drone attacks have been recorded in Erbil yesterday, with sirens heard near the US consulate near the city center and reports of at least one drone being shot down. Furthermore, a long convoy of US troops and equipment was observed near Erbil airport yesterday, indicating increased American military activity.

The information landscape has become increasingly chaotic, with social media accounts affiliated with the rival KDP and PUK parties spreading rumors and disinformation. KDP-backed accounts circulate unverified reports of attacks in PUK-controlled areas to reinforce their narrative that the PUK aligns with Iran’s axis. Meanwhile, PUK social media spreads rumors about Iranian attacks in KDP zones. These reports appear to be fabricated but demonstrate the parties’ efforts to exploit the crisis against each other.

Meanwhile, Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region have been placed on high alert, fearing Iranian retaliation. Some groups are increasingly discussing political contingency plans in case of regime collapse in Iran. Today, Komala, one of the main opposition groups, called for all Iranian Kurdish organizations to establish a joint governance committee to prepare for potential opportunities – precisely the scenario Iran has long feared from these groups, despite their military ineffectiveness over the past decade.

One likely explanation for the Barzani family’s disappearance is fear of Iranian strikes, given Iran’s longstanding suspicions about their cooperation with Israel. While the KDP and its official media have maintained careful coverage of the Iranian regime publicly, the party’s ties to Israel are well-established. Having issued threats against Iraq several weeks ago – perhaps anticipating this conflict – the Barzanis may hope this represents the final phase of regional realignment that began after October 7, 2023. With potential changes in Iran, they might expect sweeping changes in Iraq as well, positioning themselves to capitalize on the outcome. However, the conflict remains highly fluid, and the direction of their high-stakes gamble remains uncertain.