The election campaign has been underway for over a week now, with political lists and candidates pursuing their electoral fortunes to establish their true standing. Based on multiple polls, parties’ historical voting patterns, and their current positions, this analysis predicts vote shares and seat allocations for various political lists competing in Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary election, with specific focus on the Kurdistan Region provinces. According to these predictions and given the Saint-Laguë electoral system, smaller parties stand to lose significantly while larger parties are positioned to make substantial gains.

This report includes seat predictions for the KDP, PUK, New Generation, Halwest, Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yakgrtū), Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal), and the People’s Front across Kurdistan Region constituencies.

The Upcoming Iraqi Parliamentary Election

The upcoming Iraqi parliamentary election is scheduled for November 11, 2025, representing a pivotal moment for all political forces and parties in Kurdistan. The election will employ the Saint-Laguë 1.7 method, which systematically disadvantages smaller parties. According to current analysis and projections focused on Kurdistan Region performance, the distribution of seats is expected to break down as follows: KDP at 25-31 seats depending on turnout strength, PUK at 19-22 seats, New Generation at 5-10 seats, Yakgrtū at 2-5 seats, Halwest at 2-4 seats, Komal at 1-3 seats, and the People’s Front at 0-1 seats.

The detailed analysis contained in this report covers the three Kurdistan Region provinces, where 44 general seats and 2 Christian quota seats are allocated. While 3,883,501 people hold voting rights, only 3,068,350 people—representing 79%—have obtained biometric cards enabling them to vote. This means 815,150 people, or 21%, cannot participate from the outset.

Of the 3,068,350 registered voters, 224,333 are special voters at 7%, while 2,844,051 are general voters at 93%.

At the provincial level, the breakdown is as follows: Erbil has 1,087,880 total eligible voters, comprising 1,002,000 general voters and 85,793 special voters. Sulaimani has 1,201,846 total eligible voters, with 1,119,111 general voters and 82,547 special voters. Duhok has 778,846 total eligible voters, consisting of 722,853 general voters and 55,993 special voters.

Erbil Constituency

Erbil constituency comprises 16 seats: 15 general seats and 1 quota seat. While 1,410,112 people hold voting rights, only 1,002,087 have received biometric cards enabling them to vote. Approximately 408,000 people have not obtained cards, meaning 29% of eligible voters are effectively excluded before the election even begins. Turnout calculations are therefore based on the 1,002,087 figure, which inflates the participation rate. With an expected turnout between 55-60%, approximately 550,000 to 600,000 people are projected to cast ballots.

This analysis relies on multiple data sources including direct polling, historical voting patterns, current party assessments, and discussions with party officials themselves.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): KDP maintains overwhelming control in Erbil, treating it essentially as secured territory—a yellow zone under their authority. In the previous 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election conducted under a four-constituency system, KDP won 10 seats in this province. In the Kurdistan Parliament election held on October 20, 2024, the party secured 347,786 votes representing 52% of the vote. While it’s unlikely KDP will replicate those numbers—given historically lower turnout for Iraqi parliamentary elections and higher expected boycott rates—the Saint-Laguë system structurally favors larger parties. Projections indicate KDP will secure 10 seats in the optimistic scenario and 8 seats in the conservative estimate, though KDP officials themselves believe they’ll capture 11 seats in the province. The realistic projection stands at 8-9 seats.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister, is overseeing the Erbil constituency campaign for PUK this cycle. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, PUK obtained 111,102 votes in Erbil province, representing 17% of the vote. In the previous Iraqi Council of Representatives election, PUK secured only 2 seats in this province. Current predictions suggest PUK’s vote share will decline somewhat, potentially reaching between 85,000-95,000 votes. Under the Saint-Laguë method, this vote range provides probability for 3 seats with a strong mathematical remainder. PUK itself is targeting 3 seats in the province, with a strong scenario of 3 seats and a weak scenario of 2 seats.

New Generation Movement: In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, New Generation emerged as the second-strongest force in Erbil with 79,245 votes at 18%, securing 3 seats. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, New Generation obtained 104,222 votes at 16%. Due to anticipated higher boycott rates and the emergence of new candidates and competing lists, their vote share may decline. However, even with 80,000-90,000 votes, they maintain strong probability of retaining 3 seats, with 2 seats as the minimum realistic scenario. Under Saint-Laguë mechanics, even 60,000 votes would likely guarantee 2 seats.

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal): In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, Komal participated and obtained 19,517 votes but won no seats. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, Komal received 20,265 votes. If they match this performance, winning a seat remains mathematically difficult. Under Saint-Laguë, when divided by 1.7, this becomes 11,921 votes—a weak remainder insufficient for a seat. However, if they can increase their vote share to approximately 30,000 votes, seat probability improves to a realistic threshold.

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yakgrtū): In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, Yakgrtū obtained 24,178 votes at 4%. This rate falls short of the seat threshold, as dividing by 1.7 yields 14,222 votes—a weak remainder. However, Yakgrtū has launched an aggressive campaign in Erbil under new list leadership. According to their internal projections, they’re targeting over 30,000 votes, which would provide realistic probability of securing one seat.

Halwest Movement: In Erbil province, Ali Hama Salih heads Halwest’s list and serves as the movement’s chief decision-maker. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election—their first electoral participation—Halwest obtained 16,871 votes. This number doesn’t reach the seat threshold; under Saint-Laguë it becomes 9,924 votes with weak probability. However, polling data suggests their support base has grown considerably. According to their own projections, they’ll secure between 35,000-40,000 votes. At that level, one seat becomes virtually certain.

People’s Front: Led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi in Erbil province, the People’s Front obtained 9,776 votes in the Kurdistan Parliament election. Their probability of winning a seat remains weak on paper. However, party officials believe the arrest of their leader and the Lalezar incident have significantly increased their support base, potentially giving them a realistic chance at one seat, though victory remains an uphill battle.

Erbil Province Seat Predictions: KDP is projected to win between 8-10 seats, PUK between 2-3 seats, and New Generation between 2-3 seats. Among the smaller parties, Halwest, Yakgrtū, Komal, and the People’s Front each have potential to capture 0-1 seat depending on their ability to consolidate support and reach the electoral threshold.

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Also read:

• Mapping Shiite Electoral Competition in Iraq’s 2025 Vote

• Iraq’s Sunnis in 2025 Elections: from Taqaddum’s Dominance to a Three-Way Contest

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Sulaimani Constituency

Sulaimani constituency comprises 18 seats. While 1,532,893 people held voting rights, only 1,201,846 have received biometric cards enabling them to vote. Approximately 331,000 people haven’t obtained cards, meaning 22% of eligible voters are excluded from the outset. Turnout calculations are based on the 1,201,846 figure, raising the effective participation rate. Expected turnout ranges between 50-55%, suggesting approximately 600,000 people will cast ballots. If calculated against the original eligible voter figure of 1,532,000, this would represent only 40% turnout, but the meaningful rate is calculated against those actually able to vote, yielding 55%.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): PUK is targeting the largest seat share in Sulaimani province, which represents their demographic heartland and security force stronghold—factors that traditionally consolidate election results in their favor. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, PUK obtained 257,359 votes representing 41% of valid votes in the province. PUK officials speak confidently of securing 11 seats in Sulaimani, but under the Saint-Laguë method based on historical performance, they’re more realistically positioned to win 8-9 seats. However, considering recent polling data and the party’s current standing, the realistic range extends from 8 seats at minimum to 10 seats at maximum.

New Generation: In the Kurdistan Parliament election, New Generation emerged as the second-strongest force in Sulaimani with 141,179 votes at 21%. In the previous Iraqi parliamentary election conducted by constituency, they secured 5 seats. Since early August, Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of New Generation, has been imprisoned—a significant factor that will impact their vote share and campaign effectiveness. New Generation officials expect to secure 5-6 seats, but given anticipated higher boycott rates and increased competition from other forces, projections place them between 3-5 seats.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): KDP ranked as the third-strongest force in Sulaimani in previous elections. In the Iraqi parliamentary election, they obtained 54,891 votes in the province. In the October 20, 2024 Kurdistan Parliament election, KDP secured 62,856 votes representing 9% of valid votes. KDP is targeting 3 seats in Sulaimani, but polling data and current projections suggest 2 seats represent the more realistic outcome.

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal): In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, Komal obtained 44,639 votes. In the October 20, 2024 election, Komal received 40,922 votes. Komal officials believe they’ll secure 2 seats in Sulaimani constituency, but if they match their previous Iraqi parliamentary election performance, 1 seat plus a remainder represents the more likely outcome.

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yakgrtū): In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, Yakgrtū obtained only 22,876 votes. However, in the October 20, 2024 election, they made significant gains securing 50,534 votes. Under the Saint-Laguë method, Yakgrtū achieves approximately one seat with a strong remainder—placing them close to two seats. Strong probability suggests Yakgrtū will take 2 seats in Sulaimani constituency, with 1 seat as the conservative scenario.

People’s Front: Led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi, who is currently imprisoned, the People’s Front has participated in one election, obtaining 21,080 votes in the October 20, 2024 election. Under the Saint-Laguë method, the People’s Front’s votes fall short of a seat threshold, though party officials express confidence in winning one seat. If they can increase their vote share to approximately 30,000 votes, one seat becomes mathematically achievable.

Halwest Movement: Led by Ali Hama Salih, Halwest has participated in one election to date. In the previous election, they obtained 30,699 votes, and polling suggests their support base has expanded. If previous election performance is considered baseline, under Saint-Laguë they secure one seat comfortably. If their vote level increases as projected, probability of securing two seats becomes realistic.

Sulaimani Province Seat Predictions: PUK is projected to dominate with 8-10 seats, while New Generation follows with 3-5 seats. KDP is expected to capture 2-3 seats. Among smaller parties, Halwest is positioned for 1-2 seats, Yakgrtū for 1-2 seats, and Komal for 1-2 seats. The People’s Front faces an uphill battle for a single seat with 0-1 as their realistic range.

Duhok Constituency

Duhok constituency comprises 11 seats, including 1 quota seat. While 940,496 people held voting rights, 778,846 have received biometric cards enabling them to vote. Approximately 161,650 people haven’t obtained cards, meaning 17% of eligible voters are excluded from the outset. Turnout calculations are based on 778,846, raising the effective participation rate. Expected turnout ranges between 65-70% in Duhok province, suggesting approximately 545,000 voters will participate—notably higher than other constituencies.

This analysis relies on multiple sources including polling, historical voting patterns, current party assessments, and discussions with party officials.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): KDP maintains comprehensive control over Duhok as its secured territory. In the Iraqi parliamentary election in Duhok, KDP obtained 261,543 votes at 66%. In the October 20, 2024 election, they substantially increased their dominance, securing 402,157 votes representing 73% of valid votes. KDP officials believe they’ll win 9 seats in the province given their overwhelming vote share. If they replicate previous performance, under Saint-Laguë mathematics KDP’s ninth seat requires 44,000 votes, while smaller parties waste most of their votes—New Generation’s highest strong remainder for their first seat is only 27,000 votes. Even KDP’s hypothetical 11th seat in the Saint-Laguë calculation would require only 36,000 votes, which exceeds all competitors’ capabilities. Therefore, if KDP matches previous performance and other parties do likewise, no other force within Duhok and Zakho will secure seats—KDP is positioned to sweep all available seats.

New Generation: In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election in Duhok, New Generation obtained 19,292 votes. In the October 20, 2024 election, they emerged as the second-strongest force with 46,631 votes—a significant improvement. New Generation officials are targeting one seat in Duhok. If they can increase their vote share while KDP’s support experiences any decline, winning one seat becomes mathematically possible.

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yakgrtū): In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election in Duhok, Yakgrtū obtained 81,144 votes at 20%—a substantial showing. In the October 20, 2024 election, they received 42,732 votes, representing a significant decline. If they can match their previous Iraqi parliamentary election performance, 2 seats become possible. If they match their more recent Kurdistan Parliament performance, 1 seat is the likely outcome.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): In the Iraqi parliamentary election in Duhok, PUK obtained 25,040 votes at 6%. In the October 20, 2024 election, they secured 28,577 votes representing 5% of valid votes. If PUK matches previous performance, seat probability remains very weak—the Saint-Laguë 1.7 method reduces this to approximately 16,000 votes, a weak remainder insufficient for a seat under normal circumstances. However, if they can increase their vote share, seat probability improves, particularly since a woman leads their list and could potentially benefit from women’s quota provisions.

Halwest Movement: In the Kurdistan Parliament election, Halwest obtained 8,438 votes in Duhok. Therefore, if they can triple their vote share, they achieve weak probability of securing one seat, though this represents a challenging target.

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal): In the October 20 Kurdistan Parliament election, Komal obtained 3,677 votes in Duhok, providing no realistic probability of winning a seat in this constituency.

People’s Front: In the Kurdistan Parliament election, they obtained 2,605 votes in Duhok, providing no realistic probability of winning a seat in this constituency.

Duhok Province Seat Predictions: KDP is overwhelmingly positioned to dominate with 9-10 seats out of 11 available. Yakgrtū follows at a distant second with potential for 1-2 seats. New Generation, PUK, and Halwest each face long odds but maintain outside chances at 0-1 seat each. Komal and the People’s Front have no realistic path to seats in this constituency.

Overall Regional Results

Based on comprehensive analysis conducted over recent months—including direct citizen polling before the campaign launch and follow-up polling during the first campaign week—combined with assessment of historical voting patterns, current party standings, publication of analytical materials including the “Iraqi Parliamentary Elections” book and the “Election Box” series comprising six election-focused volumes, and multiple specialized election debates, the following represents the closest current projection for party seat allocations. This analysis integrates multiple sources: direct polling data, historical voting patterns, current party assessments, and candid discussions with party officials.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Regional Performance: Across the three Kurdistan Region provinces, KDP’s projected seat distribution shows Erbil contributing 8-10 seats, Sulaimani contributing 2-3 seats, and Duhok contributing 9-10 seats. Beyond the Region, Nineveh constituency is expected to contribute 5-6 seats, while Kirkuk adds 1-2 seats. Within the three Kurdistan Region provinces totaling 44 seats, the strong scenario projects 23 seats at 52%, while the weak scenario projects 19 seats at 43%, plus two quota seats. Across all of Iraq, KDP’s total projection ranges from 25 seats in the conservative estimate to 31 seats in the optimistic scenario, excluding quota seats.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Regional Performance: PUK’s projected distribution shows Erbil contributing 2-3 seats, Sulaimani providing their stronghold performance of 8-9 seats, and Duhok potentially adding 0-1 seat. Beyond the Region, Nineveh constituency contributes 1-2 seats, Kirkuk provides a significant 4-5 seats, Salah al-Din adds 0-1 seat, and Diyala contributes 0-1 seat. Within the three Kurdistan Region provinces totaling 44 seats, the strong scenario projects 13 seats at 30%, while the weak scenario projects 10 seats at 23%. Across all of Iraq, PUK’s total projection ranges from 15 seats in the conservative estimate to 22 seats in the optimistic scenario, excluding quota seats, though the most realistic projection suggests 18-20 seats.

New Generation Regional Performance: New Generation’s projected distribution shows Erbil contributing 2-3 seats, Sulaimani providing 3-5 seats, Duhok potentially adding 0-1 seat, and Kirkuk contributing 0-1 seat. Across the three Region provinces plus Kirkuk, the strong scenario projects 10 seats total, while the weak scenario projects 5 seats—representing significant volatility based on turnout and boycott rates.

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yakgrtū) Regional Performance: Yakgrtū’s projected distribution shows potential seats across all three provinces: Erbil at 0-1 seat, Sulaimani at 1-2 seats, and Duhok at 1-2 seats. Kirkuk shows 0 seats. The total projection ranges from 2 seats in the weak scenario to 5 seats in the strong scenario—representing substantial upside if their campaign momentum continues.

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal) Regional Performance: Komal’s projected distribution shows Erbil contributing 0-1 seat, Sulaimani providing 1-2 seats, and Duhok contributing 0 seats. The total projection ranges from 1 seat in the weak scenario to 2 seats in the strong scenario—modest but meaningful representation.

People’s Front Regional Performance: The People’s Front’s projected distribution shows potential seats only in Erbil at 0-1 seat and Sulaimani at 0-1 seat, with Duhok at 0 seats. The total projection ranges from 0 seats in the weak scenario to 1-2 seats in the strong scenario—representing their tenuous electoral position.

Halwest Movement Regional Performance: Halwest’s projected distribution shows Erbil contributing 1-2 seats, Sulaimani providing 1 seat, and Duhok contributing 0 seats. The total projection ranges from 2 seats in the weak scenario to 4 seats in the strong scenario—representing solid growth for a relatively new political movement.

This analysis represents current projections for the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary election based on extensive polling, historical data, and current political dynamics across Kurdistan Region constituencies. The Saint-Laguë 1.7 method will significantly advantage larger parties, potentially consolidating power among KDP and PUK while smaller parties face substantial barriers to representation.