This extended passage from an article by writer Arif Qurbani encapsulates how Kurdish nationalist intellectual circles view the Kurdish-Arab dynamics in Iraq and their concerns about the upcoming census planned by the Iraqi government for later this month:
“I’ve emphasized this repeatedly – the current generation of Arab politicians in Baghdad are managing the Kurdish question with far more sophistication and strategic finesse within their state framework compared to previous Arab political generations. While there are suspicions about hidden actors pulling strings behind closed doors, even if true, this represents a masterful display of political craft, because what previous regimes failed to achieve through brute force, chemical weapons, the Anfal campaign, and genocide, these ‘turbaned politicians’ are accomplishing through soft power.

The most alarming aspect here is that the application of soft power to diminish Kurdish influence has effectively pacified the Kurds. It mirrors a hunter who methodically ensures his prey feels completely secure in its manufactured environment, even providing abundant resources, while ultimately planning its elimination. Contemporary Iraq is executing this strategic deception with the Kurds. This policy has fostered a perception among many Kurds that has transformed Iraq’s image from that of an occupying force to a benefactor. Consequently, numerous policies and actions implemented by Baghdad aren’t perceived as threats by the Kurdish majority, and when a minority raises the alarm about these dangers and attempts to awaken national consciousness, they are dismissed as mere dissenters.

Perhaps the most telling manifestation of this policy is Baghdad’s seemingly benign decision to conduct a general population census. Iraq has gone without a census for a quarter-century, during which fundamental changes have reshaped both its political system and society. Superficially, why shouldn’t they conduct a census, given that it traditionally serves as the foundation for national development planning? To those unfamiliar with Iraq’s complex internal dynamics, unaware that every administrative process is entangled with ethnic conflicts and power struggles, opposition to a census would seem incomprehensible. This soft-power strategy has cultivated a false sense of security among some Kurds and other communities who perceive no threat in this process.

In reality, this represents a profoundly dangerous development because it intersects with the fundamental ‘Kurdish question’ in Iraq, where the resolution pathway is intrinsically linked to demographic distributions within disputed territories. Iraq’s constitution stipulates procedures for non-indigenous residents, classified as ‘foreigners,’ to vacate these regions in planned phases, after which the indigenous population would determine their alignment with either Kurdistan or Arab territories. However, Baghdad has not only failed to implement this constitutional provision but, pursuing the same strategy of demographic engineering, has facilitated the settlement of millions of Arabs from Badra and Jassan to Sinjar. They’ve orchestrated a comparable Arab settlement within Kurdistan Region’s cities and villages, seeking to legitimize these demographic changes through the seemingly neutral mechanism of a general population census.

While these are preliminary warning signs, I can assert with conviction that if Baghdad succeeds, their objective is to eliminate any distinction between indigenous Arabs and those settled through Arabization policies, whether historical or recent. It’s certain that in the subsequent phase, under the guise of constitutional implementation, they will initiate a referendum in these regions to determine their territorial identity, thereby invalidating Kurdish claims after having already reclaimed half of South Kurdistan’s geography and transforming these areas into demographic strongholds for Arab presence within the Kurdistan Region, ultimately reducing Kurds to a minority in their ancestral homeland.

Despite the Kurds’ limited influence in Baghdad’s decision-making apparatus and their inability to reverse Baghdad’s decisions, if the Kurdistan Region boycotts this census process and coordinates with Kurds in disputed territories and across Iraq to do the same, the process would lack legitimacy. This would thwart Baghdad’s objectives and prevent Iraq from presenting it as a valid general census, potentially forcing them to abandon the initiative altogether. Through this approach, Kurds can avert a significant long-term threat to their future, whereas participating in the census as currently designed by Baghdad represents an existential threat to both Kurds and Turkmen – one toward which we are currently sleepwalking.”