For two consecutive days, drone strikes have targeted KDP-affiliated Peshmerga forces stationed at a newly established outpost on a strategic hilltop. In yesterday’s attack, three Peshmerga members were hospitalized—two with physical injuries and one reportedly suffering from psychological trauma and headaches. A second strike today wounded two additional Peshmerga personnel.

Context: According to Community Peacemaker Teams (CPT), an organization that closely monitors Turkish military–PKK confrontations in the Kurdistan Region, the drone used in these attacks belonged to the PKK. CPT reported that the drone was deployed for surveillance. They also noted that a nearby Turkish military outpost fired at the drone, which caused it to explode inside the Peshmerga base. However, other Peshmerga sources claim that they fired at the drone while it was surveilling the outpost, but it detonated upon being hit. A second drone—also attributed to the PKK—struck the area today, marking two attacks within a 24-hour period.

Analysis: There are indications that the PKK may be behind the attacks. The two consecutive strikes suggest a deliberate attempt to target the newly established Peshmerga outpost—likely as a warning intended to pressure the Peshmerga to withdraw from the area. One local journalist with connections to PKK-affiliated networks reported that the group initially planned to release footage of the first attack but ultimately chose not to.

The Kurdistan Region’s Security Council, which is controlled by the KDP, issued a statement condemning the attacks as the work of a “terrorist group,” without directly naming the PKK. The statement framed the strikes as part of a broader effort to “undermine peace and stability,” referencing both the ongoing peace process between imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and the Turkish state, and a recent conference focused on Syrian Kurdish unity.

The targeted outpost is located in Gre Dava, a strategic hill south of Balava village in Amedi district. Peshmerga forces established their position there just three days ago, making it operational for less than 24 hours before the first drone strike.

The KDP had long sought to secure a military foothold in Gre Dava but had been prevented by PKK opposition. Taking advantage of the PKK’s current unilateral ceasefire, the KDP moved forward with the deployment—an action that appears to have provoked the PKK. Control of Gre Dava is strategically significant: it enables surveillance over PKK activity in the Gara region and could disrupt one of the key routes linking the PKK’s strongholds in the Gara mountains and Metina, two of the group’s most fortified positions in the Kurdistan Region.

The PKK likely perceives this development not as a defensive measure by the KDP, but as a strategic maneuver aligned with Turkish military interests, aimed at limiting PKK mobility. The group’s response—two drone strikes in less than two days—reflects its belief that the new outpost threatens its operational depth in the area. It remains unclear whether additional attacks will follow, or if the PKK will ultimately have to accept the outpost as a fait accompli.

Despite the declared PKK ceasefire, the past weeks have seen numerous clashes between the PKK and the Turkish military in this very region, underscoring the fragile and mistrustful nature of the current de-escalation. While negotiations in Turkey appear to be making progress, the PKK likely views the Gre Dava deployment as an attempt to preemptively block its fallback options should the talks collapse. This strategic anxiety may explain the PKK’s swift and forceful reaction to the outpost’s establishment.