For the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections, the five Kurdish opposition parties represented in the Kurdistan Parliament are deliberating the formation of an alliance to contest the elections. This comes as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has proposed a separate alliance with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and possibly other Kurdish factions in the disputed territories to contest the elections.

Context: The Iraqi parliamentary elections are scheduled for November 11 of this year, and the registration period for electoral lists and alliances has already begun. The initial proposal for an opposition alliance was made by the Islamist-leaning Kurdistan Justice Group, which approached both the Kurdistan Islamic Union and the People’s Front. Other reports indicate that discussions have also extended to the two other opposition groups represented in the Kurdistan Parliament—Halwest Movement and New Generation—both of which have reportedly given their preliminary agreement to join the alliance. Together, these five parties hold 31 out of the 100 seats in the Kurdistan Parliament.

Analysis: While previous attempts to form a united opposition list for Kurdistan’s elections last year failed to yield results, this current initiative appears more substantial with promising indications of success. New Generation, often the most distanced from the other opposition groups and the largest among them in terms of parliamentary seats, has welcomed the idea and stated that it has no veto against any group joining the alliance, with the exception of the KDP and PUK. This is a significant development, as New Generation had previously attacked other opposition groups, particularly the Halwest Movement, creating barriers to unity. Its current openness removes one of the major obstacles to forming a joint list.

Moreover, recent meetings have taken place between the leaderships of the Justice Group, People’s Front, and Islamic Union to discuss the formation of the alliance. In light of the PUK’s similar initiative to contest elections jointly with the KDP, the opposition front may feel greater urgency to consolidate, especially given that the Iraqi electoral system makes it more difficult for smaller parties to secure seats independently.

However, there remains the possibility that joint opposition lists may be formed only in the disputed territories—such as Kirkuk, Mosul, and Diyala—where Kurdish votes are at higher risk of splitting, potentially allowing Arab or other non-Kurdish candidates to prevail. In these territories, several scenarios are possible: a unified all-Kurdish list, a KDP-PUK alliance versus all other Kurdish groups, or, alternatively, negotiations could collapse, leading to independent competition as in the 2023 provincial elections.

Inside the Kurdistan Region itself, forming a single opposition list faces additional challenges, particularly over the technical aspects of seat distribution among the parties. However, because the elections will operate under a semi-open list system, this hurdle could be mitigated. Some parties may also find it politically costly to be seen rejecting a unity initiative outright.

While the current political climate makes such an alliance more feasible than in previous attempts, negotiations could still collapse over technical details of implementation.